“Impossible Foods founder and CEO Patrick Brown said the meat industry is facing a reckoning”

Last Tuesday, on CNBC’s Mad Money show hosted by James Cramer, Impossible Foods founder and CEO Patrick Brown said the meat industry is facing a reckoning. According to Mr. Brown, the animal-based food market will end within the next two decades, as consumers seek out healthier food options. “From a nutritional standpoint our products match the protein quality and content of the animal products that they replace,” he said. “Ours is a clear winner from a health and nutrition standpoint.”

Mr. Brown is hopeful of leveraging the perceived advantages of his product. As he told Mr. Cramer, “This is why I think people are increasingly aware plant-based products are going to completely replace the animal-based products in the food world within the next 15 years. That’s our mission. That transformation is inevitable.” If his view proves correct, what does it mean for carbon emissions?

According to the latest thinking, farming is responsible for the equivalent of 574 and 56 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the United States and Canada, respectively. That represents

about 8% of CO2 emissions for each country. In the United States, 42% of agricultural emissions come from animal agriculture, of which two-thirds of the gases are emitted by ruminants: animals like cows, buffalo and sheep that use bacteria in their stomachs to ferment food. That allows them to eat foods, like grasses, that humans can’t, which is significant since according to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), as much as 70% of all agricultural land globally is range land that can only be utilized as grazing land for ruminant livestock.

Livestock have been getting a bad rap over its pollution due to mistakes in research some years ago. One mistake was contained in a 2009 analysis by Worldwatch Institute that asserted 51% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions come from raising and processing livestock. However, in 2016, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reported that the largest sources of GHG emissions were electricity production (28% of total emissions), transportation (28%), and industry (22%). All of agriculture accounted for only 9% of total emissions, with animal agriculture representing only 3.9%, or less than half the sector’s emissions.

The misconception of the role of animals in GHG emissions emanated from a 2006 FAO report, “Livestock’s Long Shadow.” The report received widespread attention, and was in first place in a Google search we conducted last week for animal emissions. The FAO report stated that livestock produced 18% of the world’s GHG emissions. This led to its conclusion: Livestock was doing more to harm to the climate than all modes of transportation combined.

Livestock and Transportation Emissions

The claim was wrong. Its inaccuracy was pointed out by Dr. Frank M. Mitloehner, Professor of Animal Science and Air Quality Extension Specialist at the University of California, Davis, in a 2010 speech. The problem arose from FAO analysts using a comprehensive life-cycle assessment to study the climate impact of livestock, but a different method when analyzing transportation. The report’s lead author, Henning Steinfeld, quickly moved to correct the report’s conclusion, but most people today seeking information are still being exposed to the wrong conclusion.

The FAO examined all factors associated with producing meat. This included emissions from fertilizer production, converting land from forests to pastures, growing feed, and direct emissions from animals (belching and manure) from birth to death. However, when they considered the carbon footprint of transportation, they ignored climate impacts from manufacturing vehicle materials and parts, assembling vehicles, and maintaining roads, bridges and airports. Instead, they only considered the exhaust emitted from operating autos, trucks, trains and planes. This led to FAO’s comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from livestock, compared to those from transportation, being greatly distorted.

FAO estimates about 14.5% of global GHG emissions from human activities, or 7.1 gigatons of CO2 equivalent, can be attributed to the livestock sector annually. This is broadly equivalent to the emissions from all the fuel burned by all the world’s transport vehicles, including autos, trucks, trains, ships and airplanes. There is no comparable full life-cycle assessment for transportation. However, as Mr. Steinfeld pointed out, direct GHG emissions from transportation versus livestock can be compared and amount to 14% versus 5%, respectively. The two comparisons are shown in the accompanying chart, and highlight how animals are not the emissions problem they are often accused of being.

U.S. Agricultural Pollution Flat

Although livestock are not the pollution problem, it hasn’t deterred critics from leveling the old accusations. Climate Nexus states that about 70 billion animals are raised annually for human consumption. This impacts about one-third of ice-free land surface and 16% of global fresh water. Moreover, projections show that meat and dairy consumption will grow by 76% and 64%, respectively, by 2050. That growth is what fuels the fear of pollution risk. They point to data that reportedly says that global GHG from livestock increased 51% between 1961 and 2010. Climate Nexus writes:

“If global consumption of meat and dairy continues to grow at the current pace, the agriculture sector could consume about 70 percent of the allowable budget for all GHG emissions by mid-century. To meet the global goal of limiting warming to 2°C, annual emissions must be reduced from today’s levels of 49 gigatons of CO2 to around 23 gigatons by 2050. Agriculture would use up 20 of those gigatons, leaving only three for the rest of the global economy.”

The problem is that the data we have seen from the U.S. EPA for United States pollution from its agricultural sector, which includes livestock, shows a very different story, albeit for a shorter period of time. The historical data for global GHG averages to about a 1% per year increase over the 49 years to 2010. U.S. data shows less than a 10% increase for all agricultural GHG emissions over the 28 years, 1990-2018.

“According to the FAO statistical database, total direct GHG emissions from U.S. livestock have declined 11.3% since 1961, while production of livestock meat has more than doubled”

According to Dr. Mitloehner, technological, genetic and management changes that have taken place in U.S. agriculture over the past 70 years have made livestock production more efficient and less GHG-intensive. According to the FAO statistical database, total direct GHG emissions from U.S. livestock have declined 11.3% since 1961, while production of livestock meat has more than doubled. That would seem to go counter to what Climate Nexus wrote. This is especially true when one considers that the U.S. accounted for 21% of the 60.9 million metric tons of beef consumed in the world in 2018. The U.S. consumed 50% more beef than China.

In 2015, average annual per capita meat consumption in developed countries was 92 kilograms, compared to 24 kilograms in the Middle East and North Africa and 18 kilograms in Southeast Asia. These differences are significant and argue for why the livestock business will continue to grow.

Global Livestock Production By Type

Many critics of animal agriculture point out that if farmers raised only plants, they could produce more pounds of food and more calories per person. But humans also need many essential micro- and macronutrients for good health, many of which come from beef. The energy in plants that livestock consume is most often contained in cellulose, which is indigestible for humans and many other mammals. But cows, sheep and other ruminant animals can break cellulose down and release the energy contained in this resource. That is critical given that nearly 70% of all global agricultural land is range land that can only be used for grazing ruminant livestock.

The world’s population is projected to increase to 9.8 billion by 2050, which will challenge the agricultural industry to feed this many people. Meat is more nutrient-dense per serving than vegetarian options, and allows ruminant animals to utilize feed that is not suitable for humans. Raising livestock also offers needed income for farmers in developing nations. Worldwide, it is estimated livestock provides income for one billion people, an amazing figure.

As much as Mr. Brown, the Impossible Foods CEO, believes that plant food will end hamburgers and steaks in the foreseeable future, we remain skeptical. We remember a number of food fads from the past, often prepared by our mother, a survivor of the Great Depression, that aren’t eaten often now. Pineapple upside-down cakes, the infamous gelatin salads with fruit and vegetables suspended inside, chiffon cakes, TV dinners, and fondue dinners, are a few food fads that swept the nation to become only occasional recipes today. We’re not ready to call meatless hamburgers a fad yet, but we remember when “meatless Friday” meant fish sticks for our classmates. Meatless forever? We doubt it.

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